Gold Ridge Resource Conservation District

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EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure01.gif

La Niña conditions were observed during October, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in early November stretching across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. With the exception of the Niño1+2 region, the Niño region indices remained negative over the last month, with the latest weekly value of the Niño-3.4 index at -0.8°C [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content also remained below average during October [Fig. 3], reflecting below-average temperatures at depth [Fig. 4]. Convection was suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The lower-level easterly winds were weakly enhanced near and west of the International Date Line, and anomalously westerly upper-level winds were mainly west of the International Date Line. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected weak La Niña conditions.

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Source:  CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.  November 10, 2016.

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